How much will life in the cities change if gasoline costs significantly more than it does today?

Will the city be able to offer the housing, transportation options or amenities that its residents may prefer if fuel becomes a more expensive item relative to the family budget?

These are some questions I’ve been pondering lately and would welcome your input.

Assuming that oil prices over the next 10-20 years reach and surpass the previous high of $147 per barrel, and gasoline prices reach $2 or even $4 per litre, or $5 to $8 per gallon, how will life in cities really change?

Will it make a difference if the price escalation happens quickly or gradually?

Scenario one: new technologies emerge to allow for existing infrastructure to continue working.  One significant obstacle to any change is the existing built infrastructure.  The roads, bridges, freeways, housing stock, schools, office buildings, industrial and retail parks that we will be using for the next 50 years, and beyond, are largely already built.  Retro-fitting rapid transit into this framework tends to be costly and highly disruptive to people’s daily lives. Plus, many people like their suburban lifestyle (even if there is a growing trend toward higher density, inner-urban area living it won’t appeal to everyone).

Therefore, it’s highly possible that in most North American cities, the private automobile will still be dominant 30 years from now.  It may be smaller than the SUVs of today; it may run on electricity, fuel cells, a hybrid of sources, or simply have a much more fuel efficient gasoline engine and/or be less powerful.

Under this scenario, walking, cycling, densification, and transit use may still be gradually increasing in the cities as there are a variety of compelling reasons for people to change their lifestyles, but I’m suggesting that the private automobile and the infrastructure and built environment that supports it will remain a dominant force in urban life.

Scenario two: Strong shift to higher density living, and living close to work

Suppose gasoline costs rise relatively rapidly, and quickly become a significant drag on the living standard and lifestyle of the majority of individuals and families.  Waiting for new automotive technology may not be an option.  Families living in distant suburbs will need to reign in expenses and the fastest way to do it may be to move to a smaller home in a transit oriented neighbourhood closer to the income earner(s) place(s) of work.   This will be a boom to real estate developers — but also a challenge to them, city planners, and an entire construction industry to keep up with demand in order for such housing to remain somewhat affordable to these suburban refugee families.

Will there be a sudden demand for additional schools?  Can public school boards and private education providers manage this?  Will the local transit authority be able to manage a rapid increase in demand for transit from these new hub communities?

This scenario would also likely see a rapid decline in suburban residential real estate prices, trapping some families out there with “under water” mortgages (and in Canada you can’t walk away from these as easily as in the US).   On the plus side, such “stuck families” may see their commutes become less time consuming if fewer people are clogging the roads.

Other Scenarios, briefly:

Is there a larger scale migration from low density metro areas to higher density places?

Does working from home (or satellite offices) become much more viable with the rapid expansion of affordable, high-end video conferencing technology?

Will there be different “winner” and “loser” cities?  Ones that cannot keep talented people because driving is expensive and the built environment isn’t adapting fast enough, or can’t adapt?

None of these are necessarily mutually exclusive.  Thoughts and ideas welcome.