Will the car-tropolis come to an end? Or will America’s suburban style of living survive peak oil. A few weeks ago I suggested that current gasoline prices will not bring down American suburbia. I still believe this. At current prices in the US, people could buy more fuel efficient vehicles and continue the lifestyle — if they want to do so.
But, what happens if gasoline costs $10 a gallon by 2015? And alternative fuels like electricity are no cheaper?
To be sure, people and cities will have to find ways to function without relying on one-person-one-vehicle automobile travel. This will mean profound changes to typical urban ways of life.
On CBC’s The National Wednesday night a person interviewed (James Kunstler, I think) in Kelly Crowe’s second story suggested two important consequences for cities:
First. That cities will become more compact. Second, that many people will move to smaller cities. I’ll extrapolate on the first issue here. And the second in a subsequent post.
So, cities will become more compact, with residents living closer together. Actually, this means that cities capable of offering higher density living will prosper and others will languish.
Metropolitan areas with geographic constraints will likely fare well, as most already have a higher density of living and can offer a compact and low-gasoline-consumption life to their residents.
A century ago sprawl wasn’t practical so people lived closer together. Cities with older origins and a decent sized compact residential core, even if lower density sprawl eventually prevailed, will have an opportunity to remake themselves. Indeed the business and residents of many such cities are already doing this in such places as Detroit.
The existing residents and new comers in these cities will have to accept more apartment buildings and attached homes than currently exist. There will be political battles. There will also be new opportunities — without being in the automobile silo, people will potentially talk to each other more. More people means more amenities close by from restaurants to all variety of shopping to recreational options.
The car-tropolis took decades to create and will take decades to dismantle if automobile fuel (of whatever variety) continues to rise in price. It’s end will be more gradual than many doomsayers are predicting — in part because many people will feel trapped in their suburban homes by their mortgages being higher than house value.
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We should also start thinking about how to deconstruct those suburban homes and recycling their parts into newer homes in a high density setting. Then we can also start thinking about recycling the land back into small farms.
Do you think there will be a struggle of minds/attitudes between the suburban holdouts and the long established urbanites? It’s quite a shift to go from the sprawl to the urban core, and I imagine that people will already be unhappy about having to trade in the Hummer for a bike.
Great question Wes. In fact, that may be “the” political question of the next two decades. Do politicians and policy/decision makers cater to the suburbanites or the urbanites?
In the US, where government supplies fewer services it might be less so than in Canada where good public schools and health care are both government services. Do you start to close schools and hospitals in the distant burbs in order to open more in the densifying areas? People won’t like that and will be very vocal.
But in the US I could see a push for higher taxes to help pay for transit will be resisted by those who still don’t need to use it.
Also, I should add that I see the shift to more urban living being a gradual thing over 15-20 years. People today will give up the Hummer and buy a Matrix or Prius, and will find ways to drive less unless they are particularly wealthy. Generation Y and the next generation (generation Z?) as they start to buy homes or have families will choose urban places over suburban ones, etc.
We were looking at a minivan, but we decided to stick with our Civic and install roof racks and a cargo carrier on top. Imagine if all the people with minivans did that.