Archive for April 28, 2009

Are cities like China?

April 28, 2009 / Wendy Waters / No comments

Many world economics specialists insist that the Chinese economy needs to grow at rates nearing 8% in order for the country to generate enough jobs to keep unrest at bay and to continue pulling its citizens out of poverty.  Indeed, in China some say growth in the 6% range — as has occurred the past two quarters — is a recession.  The country’s economy has been growing so fast that it cannot adjust.

Last week I was graphing the GDP growth rate for major Canadian cities’ since 1988.  It intrigued me that economic growth rarely fell below zero for any major city, even when the national or provincial economy did.  In dire times nationally, urban GDP growth rates often approached but did not dip below approximately 0.5% (with the exception of Toronto in 1990-1991, which was dealing with some economic restructuring as well as provincial recession).

Yet, these cities often did experience what we would call “recessionary” conditions of job losses, corporate and personal bankruptcies as well as government program cuts in response to lower revenues — despite the positive GDP figure.

This led me to wonder if cities — or at least those major Canadian cities I was examining — are like China.  Their economies are so dynamic that recessionary conditions happen when GDP growth is still positive. New people are moving to the cities every day, generating economic activity inherently, for example.  It’s the slowing of momentum that causes the challenges rather than the lack of growth itself.

This similarity may also be because China is rapidly urbanizing, and its China’s cities that are pushing the country’s economic growth.

But I’m not an economist.  Anyone else care to weigh in?

Note: Unlike in the USA, Canada doesn’t have an NBER (National Bureau of Economic Research) to define recession in ways other than negative GDP growth.   It may be that my city graph is evidenceon why GDP alone is a poor measure of economic growth.

Category: economic development /

Mega city pollution and swine flu

April 26, 2009 / Wendy Waters / 11 comments

The outbreak of “swine flu” in North America is puzzling epidemiologists.  For many young Mexican adults, it’s proving to be a severe illness that may have killed 86 people, primarily in Mexico City.  Meanwhile those in the US and Canada who have confirmed cases are generally only showing signs of a mild respiratory illness or sometimes mild influenza (i.e. it’s acting like a common cold or mild flu — nothing life threatening).  Indeed, had there not been widespread media coverage, its quite possible that these people would never have even sought medical attention and thus we’d never know they had it.

One theory I heard today is that high levels of air pollution in Mexico City — which contributes to a much higher rate of chronic respiratory illnesses such as asthma than the world norm — may be a reason why this flu is hitting Mexicans harder.  (CBC TV reported this, based on something a reporter heard at a news conference put on by the British Columbia Centre for Disease Control.)

Of course, it will take time to see if this theory holds — and apparently epidemiologists are pursuing research into this.  (There are other possibilities for the milder cases north of the Rio Bravo, including different strains of the virus reaching Canada and the US, or the virus weakening as it spreads, or just the low numbers of confirmed cases.)

Should urban pollution levels — and the resultant health issues — prove a significant factor in worsening this disease, it will be an important message for the world.  Cities are growing; the percentage of the world’s population who lives in them is growing.  Because of this, it’s important to recognize the interplay between issues such as pollution and susceptibility to certain potential pandemics.

(And for the record, I love Mexico City — its history, the people, their energy and creativity; but the pollution on a bad day is brutal).

Category: ecological issues /

Will economic patriotism improve cities

April 24, 2009 / Wendy Waters / 2 comments

In the United States there is notable talk about how people should be buying American, with some trying to have this enshrined in official policy. Economix this week pondered whether this economic patriotism was uniquely American (I doubt it).

Meanwhile, Richard Florida comments on a “home base” effect that certain brands have. Starbucks peforms best in Seattle, for example.

If the economic downturn has people thinking more about where they spend their money, this might be great for cities. Or, more specifically, great for neighbourhoods and community building in cities.

What makes a place special, is that it can offer something unique.  The world has become rather homogenized — McDonalds, Coke, Starbucks can be found everywhere.  But a local coffee rostery, micro brewery, independent grocer, funky clothing store or a tasty bakery are examples of businesses that help to create an authentic place, rather than a generic retail space.

If the economic downturn pushes more people to spend their money in ways that benefit their local communities, this could help the livability of cities — and help them attract visitors and permanent residents alike.

Unfortunately, I think that application of the “support local” principle will be unevenly practiced.  The lure of Wal-Mart and the big boxes will tempt many, especially in more frugal times.   This will leave some neighbourhoods full of interesting, independent businesses and others reliant on global boxes.

Are you or people in your community shopping local? or has the lure of the mega-discounter prooved too tempting?

Category: economic development, resident attitudes, revitalization, urban history, urban lifestyles, urban retail trends /

Enough doomsday talk, focus on livability

April 21, 2009 / Wendy Waters / One comment

Almost everyday in the newspaper or the blogosphere some group attempts to make headlines forecasting what we could call “eco-doom” for cities.  Whether the prediction is rising sea levels,  fires, plagues of locusts (or killer bees) the result is misplaced attention.

Here’s an example via Planetizen: Sea Levels are Rising: It’s Time to Decide Which Cities are Worth Saving.  The article goes on to insist that we should be addressing the possibility that rising sea levels will swamp the hospital, schools and other infrastructure of various cities.

Behind this alarmist headline, the article does not discuss a time frame.  Some scientific models suggest such a scenario is at least 100 years away, if it happens.  And given similar forecasting models based on oceans and atmospheric events cannot accurately predict the weather next week or often even the next day in most coastal cities, I’m inherently skeptical of anyone saying they can predict events 50 – 100 years in the future.

Instead of forecasting certain doom, or fretting about the green house gasses that others produce in far off places, what if we focused on making our own cities more livable now?  Designing public policy to plan for a possible — but not at all a certain — event 50-100 years in the future seems a wasted energy when there is so much more we could be doing now.

Air pollution causes asthma and other respiratory disease, thereby reducing the quality of life in cities.  When Atlanta had to restrict automotive use during the 1996 Olympics, hospitalizations for asthma and related ailments declined 41%.

So what if urban public policy was centered around improving air quality:  Make possible more transit and bicycle use as well as walking instead of single-occupant automotive travel.  Preserve and create more green space, that cleans the air and improves livability in cities.

Human beings were built for walking.  When we don’t walk, or get regular moderate exercise, our bodies don’t work right (heart disease, obesity, diabetes, are all signs of this).   Public policy to make walking a more natural part of the day could reduce pollution and health care costs and improve quality of life.

If policy went further and demanded office buildings and other workplaces like hospitals and schools had better air quality and more natural light, it would reduce energy consumption and make people happier, more productive at their jobs — which would boost the economy and reduce pollution in the cities, improving livability.
Instead of discussing hypothetical doom, why don’t we talk about how cities affect the health and well-being of residents now– and do something about it.

Category: ecological issues, planning policy, Uncategorized, urban lifestyles /

Celebrate Cities with Jane’s Walk – May 2/3

April 12, 2009 / Wendy Waters / No comments

Last year 141 different walks took place in eleven Canadian cities — as well as a couple of American ones — to celebrate the life and work of Jane Jacobs.  Depending upon the volunteer leader’s interest and expertise, participants learn about local history, took in street-level charm, were exposed to challenges such as homelessness, and/or were introduced to alcoves of their cities they never knew existed.    Some walks were led by semi-celebrities in the urbanista world (I attended one led by Jane’s son).

This year, Jane’s Walk has gone global.  In addition to the 40 walks in Toronto, Jane’s adopted home town, and across Canada, apparently two walks will take place in Mumbai.  And in Jane’s birth country of the USA, dozens of walks are being planned in places ranging from New York to Omaha and Phoenix to Starkville.  And in most cities it’s not too late to organize one yourself!

If you want to sign up for a scheduled walk, act now.  Many in Vancouver are “sold out” (the even is free, but you need to register in order to keep numbers appropriate for a walking tour).

Canadian Walks (and links to those in India) can be found at at www.janeswalk.net
US Walks are being organized at www.janeswalkusa.org

Category: communities, urban history /