Archive for November 22, 2008

Home prices rising

November 22, 2008 / Wendy Waters / 4 comments

In the majority of US cities, home prices continue to decline with some cities in California seeing declines of over 30% year on year.

However, in at least 28 US cities, median prices in Q3 2008 were up according to the National Association of Realtors.   Here are the top 10:

  • Elmira, NY -  12.5%
  • Decatur, IL  –   8.7%
  • Bloomington – Normal, IL  – 8.1%
  • Wichita, KS  – 5.5%
  • Tulsa, OK  -  5.1%
  • Amarillo, TX – 4.2%
  • Trenton, NJ- 4.2%
  • New Orleans, LA – 4.1%
  • Charleston, WV – 3.5%
  • Buffalo-Niagara Falls, NY – 3.0%

An intriguing list.  Although I’m not familiar with every city, I would suspect the common link between these cities is that they missed out on the housing boom and to some extent the economic boom from 2002-2007.   Therefore, they really had no where to fall.  But this doesn’t necessarily explain why why home prices are up in Q3 2008.

Any ideas?

Category: real estate /

Creative destruction from Wal-mart’s arrival

November 16, 2008 / Wendy Waters / 6 comments

Long-time readers of this blog will know that while I’m personally not a fan of Wal-Mart, nor ever shop there, I do support their right to exist.  If they provide what consumers want, it seems somewhat futile to try to stop them.

But here’s some new research from the University of Alberta: Wal-Mart can bring about the creative destruction necessary to generate the revival of locally owned businesses nearby.  From the Globe and Mail, October 24 2008:

Liz Westman had reason to be anxious when Wal-Mart set up shop in Okotoks, Alta., in late 2002. Within a year of the giant discounter opening at the other end of town, sales at her home decor store dipped almost 10 per cent. It was the classic so-called Wal-Mart effect: Business began to shift to the newcomer and away from the town’s main street, where her store is located. Ms. Westman, however, responded swiftly.

She ditched products in her store that were also carried at Wal-Mart, such as picture frames and candles. Instead, she returned to her shop’s higher end roots of custom window coverings and one-of-a-kind sofas and chairs. Sales at Homeworks Custom Interiors recovered, and have since doubled to about $1-million a year, she says.

…

the entry of Wal-Mart into a market pinches less than 10 per cent of local stores’ business, says Paul McElhone, associate director of the retailing school at the University of Alberta’s School of Business.

“As bad as it is [when businesses fail], these are often marginal businesses anyway,” Prof. McElhone says. “When Wal-Mart comes to town, it makes other businesses better.”

The article goes on to describe how a Wal-Mart on the outskirts can actually bring more people into the historic downtown — assuming the community and business owners make an effort to keep it vibrant and relevant to present day consumer wants. Having the only Wal-Mart in a large trade area means people will come to your town.  Having other interesting places to go shop, eat, browse, etc. makes the town a regional destination.  This happened in Okotoks:

 Local merchants’ concerns about the new competitor’s impact prompted the town to draft a downtown renewal plan. It poured $6-million into planting trees, widening sidewalks and creating a central plaza around an old clock as a gathering place.

Many downtown shops went through their own rejuvenations. A picture frame store is being converted to an art gallery. Upscale restaurants, antique shops and home decor boutiques have sprung up. People from outside of Okotoks flood into town to shop.

Okotoks is not alone.  A comprehensive study revealed the value a Wal-Mart can have.  According to the Centre for the Study of Commercial Activity at Ryerson University, “retailers’ sales rose faster in districts with Wal-Mart stores – an average of 27.2 per cent – compared with areas without the discounter, where sales grew 18.6 per cent.”

I may have to rethink my view of Wal-Mart as a destroyer, and also start to see it as a source of inspiration or, as one Okotoks resident put it ” a kick in the pants” to local business owners to stop being complacent and start being creative.

Category: development conflicts, downtowns /

Halloween visit and walkability score

November 8, 2008 / Wendy Waters / 9 comments

After we ran out of candy Halloween night (after about 100 pint-sized visitors), I was pondering Richard Florida’s “Trick-or-treater” index.  Essentially, Florida argues that a “rule of thumb” measure of the child-friendliness of a neighbourhood can be based on the number of trick-or-treaters.

But, the thought occurred to me that the number of trick-or-treaters might also be correlated to a neighbourhood’s “Walk Score” (a measure of how easy it is to walk rather than drive for daily errands). Parents are probably more likely to feel comfortable strolling from house to house at night with their kids if they are accustomed to walking in the area generally.

So, if you can remember 8 days back, how many trick-or-treaters did you have, and what’s your Walk Score?

As mentioned, we had about 100 small goblins visit, and our Walk Score score is 100.

Category: communities, urban families /

Will cities be elevated?

November 3, 2008 / Wendy Waters / 7 comments

Barack Obama has pledged to create an “Office of Urban Policy” as part of his cabinet.  This would be a first — but also an encouraging sign.  80% of Americans live in cities and suburbs — metropolitan areas.  They are the centres of the 21st century, global knowledge economy as clusgters of people and industry sectors help accelerate innovation.

In Canada, despite the country having the largest cabinet in the free world, with 38 members of parliament having posts, there is no position dedicated to metropolitan issues. The closest post that I could find is John Baird’s role as “Minister of Transport, Infrastructure and Communities.”  Transport is typically a full time job, so I don’t think he’ll have much time left for urban issues. On the other hand, the infrastructure deficit in our cities warrants cabinet-level attention and changing the name of the Ministry of Transport to include infrastructure is a good sign.

To be sure, the governing Conservatives did not elect anyone in the major cities proper, although do have some members from inner suburbs.  But, that’s not a reason to overlook cities.  They contain both the challenges and promises of the 21st century:

Yes, we need to fight poverty. Yes, we need to fight crime. Yes, we need to strengthen our cities. But we also need to stop seeing our cities as the problem and start seeing them as the solution … because strong cities are the building blocks of strong regions, and strong regions are essential for a strong America.

- Barack Obama; at the U.S. Conference of Mayors in June 2008, reported in Philadelphia Daily News

Whatever happens Tuesday November 4th, at least urban issues have been elevated in the US political discussion from obscurity to occasional mention.  At the next election, they could be “front and center.”

Category: national politics /